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This weekend features three North teams in the AFC wild-card round. The Baltimore Ravens travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans (4:15 ET, ABC/ESPN) while the division champion Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Cleveland Browns (8:15 ET, NBC) in Pittsburgh. Both games are Sunday.
All three teams have had their streaks and struggles this season, so what will it take for them to advance to the divisional round? NFL Nation beat reporters Jamison Hensley, Brooke Pryor and Jake Trotter discuss the situations for the teams they cover and possible strategies going into the first weekend of the playoffs.
What does your team have at stake?
Jake Trotter: The Browns have already proven so much, finally ending the NFL's longest playoff drought. But Cleveland can prove itself even more by winning in Pittsburgh after 17 consecutive losses there. The Browns haven't won a playoff game since 1994. Sunday, they can send a message they'll be a force to be reckoned with in these playoffs -- and beyond.
Jamison Hensley: Proving their postseason mettle. The Ravens have been one-and-done in the playoffs the past two seasons, including last year when they lost to the Tennessee Titans after being the top seed and a 10-point favorite. Baltimore cornerback Marlon Humphrey said after that game, 'This team's identity right now is get in the playoffs and choke.' The Ravens' drought extends beyond the Jackson era. Baltimore hasn't won a postseason game since 2014. If the Ravens lose Sunday, the six-year span without a playoff victory would match the longest in franchise history.
Brooke Pryor: After starting 11-0, the Steelers have everything at stake in the playoffs. Not only do they need to prove their start wasn't a fluke after a three-game skid, they also need to capitalize on having this group together. With nearly 20 free agents hitting the market next season and almost zero cap flexibility, the 2021 Steelers are likely to look completely different. That's not to say they can't win in the future, but winning with this group will be easier than with a stripped-down version of the roster -- and with a quarterback who will be 39 this year.
Who is your key performer and why?
Trotter: There might not be a better closer in the NFL than Cleveland running back Nick Chubb, who is averaging better than 10 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of games this season. The Browns' blueprint to success is to take a lead into the fourth quarter, then allow Chubb, Kareem Hunt and their overpowering offensive line to salt away the game. Chubb curiously has had only 40 carries combined over Cleveland's past three games. To have any chance of knocking off the Steelers, the Browns will need to feed Chubb early, often and late come Sunday night.
Hensley: Lamar Jackson. The reigning NFL MVP is not surprisingly the Ravens' key to success, whether it's with his arm or his legs. Baltimore is 19-0 when Jackson produces a Total QBR over 70. The Ravens are 13-0 when he runs for over 90 yards. What Jackson has to fight is the urge to do too much. He has turned the ball over five times in his two playoff losses, which are highly uncharacteristic of him. Jackson has to take advantage of the big plays when they arise, but he can't force anything.
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Pryor: Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers go as Roethlisberger goes, and when he struggled in the three-game stretch and in the first half against the Indianapolis Colts, the Steelers' outlook was grim. But when he's playing his best football: turnover-free and firing darts down the field, the Steelers look almost unbeatable. His performance will dictate just how far the Steelers can go in the playoffs. And, because the Steelers locked up the AFC North in Week 16, Roethlisberger got some rest last week and will be fresh.
What does your team have to have to advance?
Trotter: A little Baker Mayfield magic. From Week 7 to Week 15, only two quarterbacks in the league had better QBRs than Mayfield -- Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. The Browns will need Mayfield to play at that level to hang in Pittsburgh, a place that has not been kind to Cleveland or its third-year quarterback. In three games at Heinz Field, Mayfield has completed 58% of his passes to go with four touchdowns and four interceptions, including a pick-six on his first passing attempt there earlier this season. Getting Mayfield in a groove out of play-action will be paramount for interim playcaller Alex Van Pelt.
Hensley: Run the ball. The Ravens have been the most dominant rushing attack over the past three seasons, averaging 183.5 yards on the ground per game. But Baltimore has had a habit of forgetting its identity in the postseason. The Ravens have run the ball only 34.4% of the time in playoff losses to the Los Angeles Chargers in 2018 and the Titans in 2019. Baltimore's running backs have totaled 23 carries in those two defeats. The Ravens have overreacted to first-half deficits by quickly abandoning the run. To make a championship run, Baltimore has to stick with what it does best and keep the ball in the hands of Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
Pryor: The Steelers need to have a consistent offensive performance. A complete game has eluded the Steelers this season -- particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The Steelers have struggled to start fast, scoring a touchdown on only one opening drive this season. In that game, a win against the Titans, the Steelers then almost fell apart in the second half. Against a hungry team like the Browns, the Steelers need to start fast and continue to exert their will. Letting off the pedal in the second half will be as costly as starting slowly in the first.
Are the chances FPI gives your team to advance to the Super Bowl correct?
Trotter: FPI gives the Browns a 1.5% chance of making the Super Bowl. In a vacuum, that might seem a little low for a team that went 11-5 playing in arguably the toughest division in football. Then again, the Browns would conceivably have to win at Kansas City and Buffalo, where they'd be heavy underdogs, on top of defeating the Steelers. The Browns have showed that, when hot, they can score with about anybody. That said, this team, from the coaching staff down to the players, is currently decimated by injuries and COVID-19. It's difficult at this point to see how they could string together consecutive wins over Roethlisberger, Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Hensley: The Ravens have a 13.2% chance of reaching the Super Bowl, which trails only the top two seeds in the AFC: the Kansas City Chiefs (51.3%) and the Buffalo Bills (17.3%). The Ravens' strong finish has prompted many to see them as a team capable of keeping the defending champion Chiefs from returning to the Super Bowl, even more so than division winners Pittsburgh and Tennessee. What makes Baltimore so dangerous is its balance. The Ravens are the only team in the AFC to rank in the top seven in the NFL in points scored and fewest points allowed.
Pryor: The Steelers have more than a 10% chance, according to FPI to make the Super Bowl, and that seems about right. Yes, they remained unbeaten the longest this season and look to be picking up steam again after the strong second half against the Colts. But to get to Tampa Bay, the Steelers probably will have to go through the Bills and the Chiefs. The Steelers already were manhandled by the Bills, and the Chiefs' offensive firepower can wilt the toughest of defenses. When the Steelers were playing their best ball, they looked like a worthy contender to derail the Chiefs' hopes of a repeat, but since then, they've suffered numerous defensive injuries. The Steelers have a prayer of making the Super Bowl, but the strength of the AFC will make that incredibly difficult.
How well is your team set up for the long term?
Trotter: The Browns are set up well. Mayfield, Chubb and cornerback Denzel Ward are all extension eligible this upcoming offseason after banner years. Pass-rusher Myles Garrett is already under contract long term. The much-improved offensive line should return intact and could be even better in 2021 behind the development of rookie left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. The Browns have cap space to bolster the defense. And Stefanski figures to get better as a head coach and playcaller. Cleveland's window is wide open.
Hensley: The Ravens have made significant strides in keeping one of the NFL's most talented rosters intact. Baltimore signed two All-Pro players -- Humphrey and offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley -- to extensions during this season, which made them among the two highest-paid players at their positions. If the Ravens don't reach a long-term deal with Jackson this offseason, they can keep him through 2023 with the fifth-year option and the franchise tag. The more immediate concerns for Baltimore are determining their big-money investment at pass-rusher (Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue are free agents at the end of the season) and finding a proven No. 1 wide receiver for Jackson.
Pryor: The Steelers have Roethlisberger under contract for another season, but that's not necessarily a good thing. His $41.2 million cap hit will make it next to impossible to retain some key members of the team such as OLB Bud Dupree, who played on the franchise tag this season, and CB Joe Haden, who carries a $15.5 million cap charge in the final year of his contract. Not only that, but the Steelers probably won't be able to pay impending free agents such as Cam Sutton and Mike Hilton. On the offensive side, the Steelers probably will part with starters such as JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Conner and Al Villanueva. A few key pieces will remain in place like Roethlisberger, T.J. Watt -- due a massive extension -- and Minkah Fitzpatrick, but the team probably will have a significant rebuild next season to become cap compliant.
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